China to dominate global ammonia supply through 2030

China remains a key player in the global ammonia supply, underpinned by its exceptionally high agricultural demand and the need to support fertiliser production at scale.

Backed by strong domestic industrial demand for ammonia, access to low-cost feedstock, and significant state-supported investment, the country is expected to remain as both the world’s largest producer and consumer of ammonia, according to intelligence and productivity platform GlobalData.

GlobalData’s latest report, “Global Ammonia Market: Key Projects and Capacity Additions, 2026” reveals that China is expected to account for about one-third of global ammonia production by 2030, reinforcing its position as the leading supplier.

Nivedita Roy, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “As the world’s largest consumer of nitrogen fertilisers, China relies heavily on ammonia as the key building block for products such as urea and ammonium phosphate, which support crop yields and national food security. With rising pressure to maintain stable harvests amid limited arable land in the country, demand for ammonia-based fertilizers is expected to remain robust through the end of the decade.”

Beyond agriculture, ammonia demand in China is also supported by a wide range of industrial uses. It is an essential input for producing chemicals such as nitric acid, which is used in making plastics, dyes, and other manufacturing materials. Ammonia is also used in emissions-control systems at power plants and factories, helping reduce nitrogen oxide (NOx) pollution.

China’s large industrial base strengthens the case for continued high ammonia output. With major sectors like steel, textiles, electronics, and construction relying on chemical intermediates, steady ammonia supply supports broader manufacturing activity.

Roy concludes: “Cost competitiveness further strengthens China’s supply outlook. Access to relatively low-cost, domestically available feedstock—especially coal in many regions—helps keep production costs down in a process where energy and raw materials make up a large share of expenses. This advantage allows Chinese producers to sustain high output even when global energy prices fluctuate.”