India heading for the centre of the global energy stage, IEA says
India is set to contribute more than any other country to the rise in global energy demand over the next 25 years, underlining its ever-greater influence in Asia and on the world stage; even so, its energy demand per capita in 2040 would still be 40 percent below the world average.
International Energy Agency (IEA) released these finding in their new report.
“India’s energy transformation requires three things: investment, investment and investment,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “A lot is being done already to overhaul the energy regulatory system and get the incentives in place; this is vital, as India will need to call upon a wider range of investors and sources of finance than it has in the past.”
India is by far the largest source of worldwide coal demand growth, most of which is met by expanded domestic production. Oil demand also increases by more than in any other country, approaching 10 million barrels per day by 2040, but in this case is met by increased imports, particularly from the Middle East, that push India’s oil import dependence above 90 percent, requiring constant vigilance as to the implications for energy security.
Yet the growth in energy provision is not confined to fossil fuels. India also becomes the world’s second-largest market for solar PV, as the deployment of renewables gathers pace in the power sector. Over half of the new electricity generation capacity to 2040 is projected to come from non-fossil fuels, led by solar and wind power. The rise in low-carbon energy is spurred by ample domestic resources, falling costs and strong policy support, as expressed in India’s historic climate pledge in the run-up to the Paris climate summit and in its efforts to tackle local pollution and improve urban air quality.
“India’s climate pledge is a beacon for the cleaner path that India intends to follow, highlighting to the world that economic growth and social transformation can be pursued with a regard for the wider environment,” said Dr. Birol.
Energy efficiency is also an increasingly important component of India’s energy picture; the coverage of India’s final consumption by mandatory efficiency measures has already increased from around 1 percent in 2005 to more than 15 percent today and is set to increase to more than 40 percent by 2040 as efficiency policies grow in scope and effectiveness. But the potential is far from exhausted. A large share of India’s future industrial and transport infrastructure, as well as around three-quarters of its anticipated 2040 buildings stock, is yet to be built: stringent energy efficiency policies offer India a tremendous opportunity to ensure that future demand for energy services is met without undue strain on energy supply or the environment.