Singapore’s low-carbon electricity imports may reach just 15% by 2035 – report

Singapore has approved 9.25 gigawatts (GW) of low-carbon electricity import capacity across six corridors, but imports are expected to account for only 15% of its electricity generation mix by 2035, roughly half the one-third target set by the Energy Market Authority (EMA). The forecast is outlined in Wood Mackenzie’s report, Green Electrons Are Waiting to Cross the Border to Singapore: 2026 Update.

Singapore generates up to 95% of its electricity from natural gas and has limited land for utility-scale renewable energy projects, making electricity imports an important part of its decarbonisation strategy. The EMA’s 6 GW import target is expected to meet about one-third of projected electricity demand. However, none of the approved projects has begun construction.

Wood Mackenzie Research Analyst for Southeast Asia Power and Renewables Wei Han Tan said the main obstacles include export permit requirements, project bankability, cross-border transmission financing and the lack of a comprehensive market mechanism allowing Singaporean buyers to claim the carbon benefits of imported electricity.

Meanwhile, the EMA’s September 2026 request for proposals increased the number of hydrogen-ready combined-cycle gas turbine units planned for 2032 from two to five, in addition to 600 megawatts (MW) of gas-fired capacity already approved for 2027 and 2029. The expansion highlights the continued role of gas-fired power in maintaining a reliable electricity supply as demand rises and Singapore moves towards cleaner energy.

Singapore’s 9.25 GW low-carbon electricity import pipeline, ranked by likelihood of commercial operation date (COD). Source: Wood Mackenzie.

Indonesia: Regulatory hurdles threaten project progress

Indonesia accounts for 37% of the approved import pipeline, with six projects holding Conditional Licences confirming their technical and commercial feasibility. However, progress has largely stalled because Clause 37 of Indonesia’s 2021 electricity regulation requires export permits to be renewed every five years and allows quotas to be revoked if domestic supply is at risk. These conditions undermine financing for projects with 20-year investment horizons.

A 40% local content requirement presents another hurdle. Meeting the EMA’s firm-power standard requires large-scale battery storage, creating a need for domestic manufacturing capacity before projects can proceed. Without agreed pricing, offtake contracts and bankable revenue models, projects cannot reach final investment decision (FID).

A key development came in July 2026, when Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, was designated to lead cross-border electricity trade with Singapore. It signed memoranda of understanding (MOUs) with Keppel Electric, Sembcorp Utilities and Singapore Energy Interconnections (SGEI). Government Regulation No. 24/2026, which routes strategic commodity exports through a Danantara subsidiary, could provide a mechanism for resolving the permit issue. Whether the same arrangement can be extended to electricity exports remains to be seen.

Malaysia: The strongest near-term import corridor

Malaysia is the only corridor with a credible path to delivering electricity imports this decade. The existing Malaysia-Singapore high-voltage direct current (HVDC) interconnector provides up to 1 GW of bidirectional capacity, avoiding the global cable supply bottlenecks affecting projects that require new infrastructure.

In August 2026, the EMA approved 900 MW of electricity imports from Johor. Of this, 300 MW was allocated to Sembcorp Utilities for floating solar and battery storage, while 600 MW went to Ditrolic Energy’s Southern Solar Alliance, backed by BlackRock’s Climate Finance Partnership and the International Finance Corporation (IFC).

The Sembcorp project could begin supplying electricity by 2029 using existing infrastructure. However, delivering the remaining 600 MW would likely require a second interconnector, which is still at the feasibility-study stage and could delay full delivery beyond 2030.

For longer-term projects requiring new subsea infrastructure, Sarawak has an advantage. Its Preferred Supplier Agreement with Prysmian, signed in October 2025, provides greater certainty over cable supply than projects in Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia and Australia. Commercial operation is realistically targeted for the mid-2030s.

Vietnam, Cambodia and Australia face lengthy delays

Vietnam, Cambodia and Australia account for a combined 43% of the approved import pipeline, but all remain at the Conditional Approval stage, with no visible construction timelines.

Vietnam lacks a legal mechanism for foreign developers to build power generation facilities and export electricity through dedicated subsea cables. Decree 272, issued in July 2026, opened the offshore wind sector to foreign investment, but export arrangements and cross-border transmission rules remain unresolved.

Cambodia has made no publicly visible progress in more than three years. It lacks an electricity export regulatory framework and surplus generation, while two-thirds of households experience regular blackouts.

Sun Cable’s Australia-Asia Power Link faces a different challenge. About 3,700 kilometres of its proposed 4,500-kilometre cable route crosses Indonesian territorial waters. Although a survey permit was approved in 2025, it does not authorise cable laying.

Wood Mackenzie expects these projects to make no significant contribution to Singapore’s electricity imports before the second half of the 2030s.

Pricing and carbon certification remain key barriers

Even if regulatory and transmission issues are resolved, price remains a major hurdle for every corridor. Imported electricity must compete with the Uniform Singapore Energy Price, currently about S$250 per megawatt-hour (MWh), while domestic gas-fired generation already incorporates a carbon tax.

Projects also need a certificate framework that allows Singaporean buyers to claim the carbon benefits of imported low-carbon electricity. This framework is still under development.

Tan said successful projects would need to secure an EMA Importer Licence, demonstrate the ability to supply firm power at an annual load factor of at least 60%, and offer prices that buyers are willing to commit to over the long term. No project in the approved pipeline has met all three requirements.