Australia is about to hit a solar overflow

Australia installed approximately 100 megawatts of new solar power every month in 2018 and there is a very real possibility that the country could become the first in the world where the grid cannot handle the excess level of distributed electricity generated. The extra power generated would be wasted as it could not be transported to where it could be used.

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The acutely ascending levels of rooftop and grid-level solar power will warrant difficult discussions as Australia reaches a solar peak, energy chiefs say.

“It’s feast or famine with renewables, they’re all turned on or all turned off at the same time,” commented EnergyAustralia director Mark Collette.

“We’ll be one of the first countries in the world to hit that solar peak. We’re going to see it way before anyone else does. We’ll hit a point where there is no point in putting any more solar power into the system without something changing.”

He said this could occur as the early 2020s, especially for South Australia, as there won’t be any more solar to add because there will be nowhere to take it.

The head of renewable energy generator Meridian Energy, Ed McManus, said even though he is a major supporter of solar power, the rapidly increasing levels of solar installations need to be examined.

“In the next 12 months, we’re going to see a battle royale on solar,” said McManus.

“We’re getting to penetration levels now where some discussions will be had that we haven’t had before.

Over the next year Australian energy leaders are expecting to have open discussion about the future of small-scale solar subsidies, as well brace for local distributors to curtail rooftop solar.

AEMO chief Audrey Zibelman said an average six rooftop solar panels are is installed in Australia every minute, adding the equivalent of a new coal-fired power station every year.

According to Green Energy Markets data, in July, rooftop and large-scale solar accounted for around 4% of the country’s total electricity generation.

The Clean Energy Regulator forecasts that around 1600 megawatts of rooftop solar will be installed in 2018, a record-breaking year for installations and 44% up on 2017 installation levels. There are now more than 3 million small-scale installations around the nation.

This almost the same level of production as the Liddell power station in the NSW Hunter Valley, and a 200-megawatt increase on the regulator’s own forecasts from earlier in the year.Another 2765 megawatts of new large-scale solar is also under construction.

Collette said this peak, where solar is simply wasted, can be minimised or avoided by investing in more batteries and smarter electricity distribution networks or by shifting the electricity demand periods.

“These costs will have to be thought about and we’ll have to decide if solar is the right technology for here and now,” he explained.

Morgan Stanley analyst Rob Koh said the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s recommendation to abolish the small-scale renewable energy scheme – the subsidy for rooftop solar – hadn’t been backed by either side of the federal government, showing faith in continued solar installations.

Both the South Australian and Victorian state governments have provided further rebates and subsidies for solar installations to help drive down the high power prices.